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General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: stanetelman on January 03, 2025, 08:38:39 PM

Title: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: stanetelman on January 03, 2025, 08:38:39 PM
Meadowlands 1st race listed post time: 6:20pm. Actual 1st race off time: 6:35pm
Mohawk 1st race listed post time: 6:30pm.  Actual 1st race off time: 6:44pm
 63z.uzi 63z.uzi 63z.uzi
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Jctoronto on January 03, 2025, 08:48:10 PM
Pk 5 pool issues race 1 both places..the guarantee will D e e e e l a y
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: stanetelman on January 03, 2025, 08:57:39 PM
Pk 5 pool issues race 1 both places..the guarantee will D e e e e l a y
Exactly  tmbz1 tmbz1
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Grandstand Handicapper on January 03, 2025, 09:19:54 PM
I get the complaints about delayed post times. I really do. I've been making my living in this game for close to 40 years. However, I think too many people take delayed post times and turn it into, "I bet a horse who was 7-1 when the gate opened, and by the time they crossed the finish line, he was 8-5." I am exaggerating to point to a scenario. If you are going to invest your money, do what you need to do to make your model work for you. Either do the work, sit by your screens, and bet when you are ready to, or wait until the last minute----or be an amatuer and bet during your lunch hour. Everyone plays to their part.

Part of this game is betting when the odds are the odds, and then you get what you get. Adapt, improvise, and invest accordingly. If you don't like it, you can either whine and keep betting, or take up mahjong. I don't mean to be an asshole. But, you can't do anything about the cards you are dealt.....but you are in complete control of how you play the hand. Whining doesn't change anything.
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: luker2453 on January 03, 2025, 10:08:05 PM
Well stated.  If you are foolish enough to bet early on and not have any idea what the odds will be when the race goes off, you get what you deserve.  Wait until the last minute and at least get a semblance of what the real odds will be, it's that simple.  It is a different era with all of the computer generated wagering going on, either adapt, or be left in the dust!
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Papillon on January 03, 2025, 10:19:14 PM
Well stated.  If you are foolish enough to bet early on and not have any idea what the odds will be when the race goes off, you get what you deserve. Wait until the last minute and at least get a semblance of what the real odds will be, it's that simple.  It is a different era with all of the computer generated wagering going on, either adapt, or be left in the dust!

those days are gone also

the odds you see when the gate is moving doesn't mean much these days

waiting until the last minute doesn't help you guess what Elite decides what the final odds will be
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Brown jug on January 04, 2025, 08:04:45 AM
correct papillion
happens at mohawk a lot as well as big m
i know at both tracks when the last second is i can bet based on where the horses are in relation to the starting point
any later and i get shut out
yet the odds can change a fair bit from that point to the final odds
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Arrive7100 on January 04, 2025, 08:35:05 AM
If you are fortunate or unfortunate enough to live in either New Jersey or Colorado they have fixed odds wagering, so whenever you bet, whatever odds your horse is then are your final odds.
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Papillon on January 04, 2025, 09:49:50 AM
If you are fortunate or unfortunate enough to live in either New Jersey or Colorado they have fixed odds wagering, so whenever you bet, whatever odds your horse is then are your final odds.


MonmouthBets is NJ's fixed odds site--they don't cover many tracks--mostly B and C  tbred tracks and as of 2023 M1 wasn't on the list

another problem MonmouthBets does is screw you over if there is a last minute scratch--you lose money even if your horse wins

one time there were two horses at 1-1 odds in a race--one of them was a gate scratch--i had a win bet on the other one hours earlier--so I was expecting about $2.60 or $2.40 to win for every $2

I received $1.40  TOTAL for a winning $2 bet-- the scratch created a minus pool(in their eyes) i called and they told me that's the way they do business even though the horse paid $2.80 in the final pool


so fixed odds wagering is not the answer

the old Betfair Exchange in NJ did it the right way--but charged 12% commission on your profits

not many places to turn to remain
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Arrive7100 on January 04, 2025, 09:55:10 AM
How can anybody charge you 12% commission on your profits, that's outrageous. Do they think they're doing you a favor by allowing you to wager on their site?
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Papillon on January 04, 2025, 09:59:03 AM
How can anybody charge you 12% commission on your profits, that's outrageous. Do they think they're doing you a favor by allowing you to wager on their site?

most exchanges in Australia and The UK charge 5-6% on winnings

NJ added another 6% arbitrarily

you can also bet against(or short) any horse with the exchanges--MonmouthBets doesn't allow betting against a horse winning
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: bestbetter on January 04, 2025, 10:29:54 AM
Well stated.  If you are foolish enough to bet early on and not have any idea what the odds will be when the race goes off, you get what you deserve.  Wait until the last minute and at least get a semblance of what the real odds will be, it's that simple.  It is a different era with all of the computer generated wagering going on, either adapt, or be left in the dust!
73cv.2 I handicap the whole card. I play ex tri pk 3,4,5 etc.
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: mwins on January 05, 2025, 10:53:36 AM
i don't think people are talking about betting early, or being shut out.
Its more about the fact that M and WEG are deceiving the public, and lieing to their customers.
Run the races on time. People will adjust their betting accordingly. And it wont take 4.5-5 hours to run a race card.

The dead time at Mohawk last night was unreal.
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Dingus on January 05, 2025, 01:03:54 PM
All I know is the 14th race at the BigM on Friday went off just before midnight.  Poor winning trainer probably stuck there until 1am.
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Brown jug on January 05, 2025, 01:07:05 PM
as i said on another thread
mohawk first post scheduled to be 6.30
last race was done at 11.10
4.40 minutes for 11 races
 so much for getting home earlier
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Arrive7100 on January 05, 2025, 01:18:20 PM
Settlemoir claims they experimented with starting at post time either last year or the year before, actually they started 2 minutes past post time and the handle dropped substantially so they dropped it. If you drill it into the bettors heads you're going to start on time they will adjust quickly because nobody wants to get shut out.
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Papillon on January 05, 2025, 01:32:48 PM
Settlemoir claims they experimented with starting at post time either last year or the year before, actually they started 2 minutes past post time and the handle dropped substantially so they dropped it. If you drill it into the bettors heads you're going to start on time they will adjust quickly because nobody wants to get shut out.

The CAW handle could care less when the race starts and they are the biggest customers

they should run them on time as scheduled and as you say, the bettors will adjust when they realize what they are doing

Charlestown tbred same thin--zero minutes till post for 9 minutes, but at least is dependable

Gurals drag could be anywhere from 5-25 minutes
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Grandstand Handicapper on January 05, 2025, 03:37:59 PM
I won't speak to the so called open windows, open pools, certain players being able to bet after the bell, etc.

Post time drag is a reality. It is not going away. The issue is why is it occuring. For legitimate reasons there are measures that can be taken. While I like the idea of the countdown clock, the question then becomes when, how is it going to be used, etc. It should be universal and consistent. There is a disproportionate amount of monies that hit the pool late and that will always impact the odds. Now, CAW's add an entire new dimension to everything. While people may understand how they work, generically, the economics they operate on (from both the track and the CAW's perspective, nobody really knows how profitable they are. Nobody really knows how much they are putting in play every day, every race. The conjecture becomes reality. There is no debate that CAW's can absolutely impact the pools, late odds, and drastic odd swings, it is still unknown how accurate their business model and profitability are. Post time drag is a reality, and CAW's exacerbate the entire landscape.

Pari-mutuel wagering needs a complete overhaul, revamping, etc. In the end, the solution is a consistent protocol, universally, to identify and enforce exactly when wagering stops and when the race starts, thus addressing both issues.
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Parked on January 05, 2025, 03:58:31 PM
Settlemoir claims they experimented with starting at post time either last year or the year before, actually they started 2 minutes past post time and the handle dropped substantially so they dropped it. If you drill it into the bettors heads you're going to start on time they will adjust quickly because nobody wants to get shut out.


👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Papillon on January 05, 2025, 04:19:46 PM
I won't speak to the so called open windows, open pools, certain players being able to bet after the bell, etc.

Post time drag is a reality. It is not going away. The issue is why is it occuring. For legitimate reasons there are measures that can be taken. While I like the idea of the countdown clock, the question then becomes when, how is it going to be used, etc. It should be universal and consistent. There is a disproportionate amount of monies that hit the pool late and that will always impact the odds. Now, CAW's add an entire new dimension to everything. While people may understand how they work, generically, the economics they operate on (from both the track and the CAW's perspective, nobody really knows how profitable they are. Nobody really knows how much they are putting in play every day, every race. The conjecture becomes reality. There is no debate that CAW's can absolutely impact the pools, late odds, and drastic odd swings, it is still unknown how accurate their business model and profitability are. Post time drag is a reality, and CAW's exacerbate the entire landscape.

Pari-mutuel wagering needs a complete overhaul, revamping, etc. In the end, the solution is a consistent protocol, universally, to identify and enforce exactly when wagering stops and when the race starts, thus addressing both issues.

the link that Bello started a thread on gave us plenty of examples of how much they are playing

one of the main reasons the ADWs want to leave it status quo is breakage

TVG, Twinspires and 1/ST combined make about $40mil a year profit on rounding down payoffs.
Title: Re: Enough BS about the post times
Post by: Arrive7100 on January 05, 2025, 05:43:02 PM
I won't speak to the so called open windows, open pools, certain players being able to bet after the bell, etc.

Post time drag is a reality. It is not going away. The issue is why is it occuring. For legitimate reasons there are measures that can be taken. While I like the idea of the countdown clock, the question then becomes when, how is it going to be used, etc. It should be universal and consistent. There is a disproportionate amount of monies that hit the pool late and that will always impact the odds. Now, CAW's add an entire new dimension to everything. While people may understand how they work, generically, the economics they operate on (from both the track and the CAW's perspective, nobody really knows how profitable they are. Nobody really knows how much they are putting in play every day, every race. The conjecture becomes reality. There is no debate that CAW's can absolutely impact the pools, late odds, and drastic odd swings, it is still unknown how accurate their business model and profitability are. Post time drag is a reality, and CAW's exacerbate the entire landscape.

Pari-mutuel wagering needs a complete overhaul, revamping, etc. In the end, the solution is a consistent protocol, universally, to identify and enforce exactly when wagering stops and when the race starts, thus addressing both issues.

Even though I can't stand it and think it's unnecessary, I realize the drag is here to stay, but what they are doing is dragging the drag. Stop bringing the horses out with zero minutes to post, have them score for 4 minutes, then start a countdown clock at 180 seconds like Meadowlands does. At least bring them out with 3 or 4 minutes to post instead so it doesn't seem as bad. Never had the drag in the old days at any track other than Northfield. I do not believe the drag helps handle at all even though Gural's puppet Settlemoir thinks it does. People are still going to bet the same amount, only later.
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