Author Topic: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington  (Read 1510 times)

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The Unstable

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Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« on: October 04, 2024, 10:53:21 PM »
Well bred seasides for under 20K.  What the Hills for under 10K.  Come get em.  Why buy a yearling for 30K when one guy has half the Sire Stake favorites and the three best two year old colt pacers in Ohio. The Ohio guys are spent out are not willing to buy.  They are way better off claiming.  Sure it is not as much fun but more and more mid level owners are moving away from yearlings because it makes almost no financial sense and they cannot beat the super trainer stables. 
« Last Edit: October 04, 2024, 10:56:01 PM by The Unstable »

Open bridle

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Re: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2024, 05:46:24 AM »
Ohio small owners are finally starting to realize chasing after crumbs after the big money stables monopolize the Ohio stake purses doesn't make sense anymore. Go buy a lottery ticket you have a better chance to breakeven. Stake level horses are racing at Ohio fairs just to make some money.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2024, 05:53:42 AM by Open bridle »

Parked

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Re: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2024, 07:48:19 AM »
Its not just Ohio..  Exact same thing in NY.  Looks to be somewhat the same thing with the National Stakes when we see Alagna and Nancy buying yearlings for under $25.  Those horses are filling holes that Harrisburg yearlings would fill so some yearlings will probably be bargains there. 
Stud owners pushing their prices up. Kenny Jacobs said what most know. 
They have so many numbers to judge a sale the managers cal always find one to cheer about.  Lets face it. One relatively new owner made the sale look a lot better than it was. 
Did anyone else notice the tone of excitement of one pedigree reader drop to almost a monotone level about half way through the 3 rd day?? The

Call Sign Merlin

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Re: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2024, 09:15:12 AM »
Well bred seasides for under 20K.  What the Hills for under 10K.  Come get em.  Why buy a yearling for 30K when one guy has half the Sire Stake favorites and the three best two year old colt pacers in Ohio. The Ohio guys are spent out are not willing to buy.  They are way better off claiming.  Sure it is not as much fun but more and more mid level owners are moving away from yearlings because it makes almost no financial sense and they cannot beat the super trainer stables.

Agree with most of this except the pricing - the mid-class yearling is priced way too high given what the expected return would be in Ohio.  Last night they overpaid because they were buying at ‘“Lexington” - the buys were to be had in our jurisdictions.

Ohio is so overbought with so few pulling actual money out.  This is why you see so many dropping to the fairs and racing multi times a week to try and recoup.  That is making it worse on the small barns and all of it will come to head at some point.  You are better off taking a few flyers on low priced yearlings and push funds to racehorses.  Sugar Instead sold for $11k and Herculisa for $3500 - got nabbed up by Virgil for >$150k and went on to make >$500k.  Low odds but the nut is much smaller and God knows Luther has lost a ton doing it the other way




Foalin at 4

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Re: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2024, 09:34:53 AM »
Its not just Ohio..  Exact same thing in NY.  Looks to be somewhat the same thing with the National Stakes when we see Alagna and Nancy buying yearlings for under $25.  Those horses are filling holes that Harrisburg yearlings would fill so some yearlings will probably be bargains there. 
Stud owners pushing their prices up. Kenny Jacobs said what most know. 
They have so many numbers to judge a sale the managers cal always find one to cheer about.  Lets face it. One relatively new owner made the sale look a lot better than it was. 
Did anyone else notice the tone of excitement of one pedigree reader drop to almost a monotone level about half way through the 3 rd day?? The

Its not the exact same thing in NY. Ny has 79 eligible yearling trotting colts. Buy one you have a 79-1 chance of making lots of cash. Buy one in Ohio you are 1000-1   

coryd03

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Re: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2024, 12:27:19 PM »
Like others are saying, it’s way too hard to recoup your money in yearlings when you start paying 6 figures . I know by experience . Spending that basically where at least in Ohio, if the horse is anything other than an elite sire stake horse, you’re going to take a complete bath on the horse and be disappointed. When you spend 30-70 you still get a decent horse with decent pedigree and few flaws, but your also at a price level that if the horse ends up in the fairs and buckeye you can still get out

gh2009

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Re: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2024, 12:45:29 PM »
Obviously, the people paying $500,000 or more can afford to, if it doesn't work out, but the upside is so small, because unless your horse is a top horse you're going to lose money. Some of the greatest horses have cost way under $100,000, many under $50,000 so why risk so much money just to buy a horse unless you're loaded and it's more of a hobby than a business.

Brown jug

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Re: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2024, 03:53:32 PM »
burke is dominating ohio
run, run away fast

SDST2009

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Re: Yearlings being given away tonight at Lexington
« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2024, 06:53:01 PM »
Having seen a number of the yearlings that sold last night, I actually think middle market was WAY too high for the quality of animal being offered. I saw several that were conformational nightmares sell for an absurd amount of money based on the product. I am not saying some of those horse won't pan out and be decent horses. But I can think of 15ish off the top of my head that seemed way too high.

I will say, it is the kiss of death if your yearling is any jurisdiction other than OH, IN, KY on the last day. They gave away several outside of those states.

 

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