Mohawk Tuesday

[HornbyDuke]

My plays:

3rd $20 ex 15, $10 ex 51
5th 5 w
10th 1 w

Good luck

[AGUA CALIENTE]

You guys gif me a headache.WTF

[willphorse]

P5

2,4,5,7 / 2,3 / 1,3 / 1,2,6,8 / 3 = $12.80

Really like
3 Undercover Bro in R2
3 Highland Dynamite in R3 (Lost by 1 in Qua- Pink Pistol who just raced in Armbro Flight. Beat Superlative who raced NW7 last night)
3 Galaxy Seelster

[Smalltimer7932]

Duke isn't that same horse went from Canada to Meadowlands ran ok there few starts then  dissapeared  until Yonkers but hated the turns there the mile track could do some good like that for a bomb but 1 looks tuff .but I swi g a little too I like 1/45 and 45/1.

[HornbyDuke]

Yes - pennent seelster.  22 starts 12 in money. Really is a roll of the dice. Jones isn't an auto toss as a driver though he goes to CC when he's serious.

Have to use longshots. Chalk you win more but that means nothing. Somebody once told me you want to bet a little to win a lot not vice versa.

I like horizontal wagers p4's and 5's. If I can get one bomb in the mix then the payout is way better than what a parlay might suggest.

[HornbyDuke]

Duke isn't that same horse went from Canada to Meadowlands ran ok there few starts then  dissapeared  until Yonkers but hated the turns there the mile track could do some good like that for a bomb but 1 looks tuff .but I swi g a little too I like 1/45 and 45/1.

Nice call

[HornbyDuke]

Interesting last race at Mohawk to cap late P4. Presquille 0-23 over the last two years with only 1 second in two thirds in that span. Goes off at 5-1. A review of his last 11 races shows the lowest odds in this same class the gelding has gone off at was 42-1 (his last race). Deserving of 5-1 here? Gelding made it look easy showing newly found speed at the start and getting a perfect trip. MacDonald made it look like it was never in ?. Was it ever?

Hmm. Another Cams Tux? Congrats to the folks that scoped this monster out. A 156 trotted mile - faster than he's gone in awhile.

[willphorse]

Walker is the owner as well. Has been improving over the past few weeks and has shown some life late in the mile, but I don’t think you can find a reason why Presquille should’ve been 5-1, nor won the race. Wasn’t the best in this field.

[Smalltimer7932]

Yes but insiders knew that's why lower price we as gamblerswont know

[Smalltimer7932]

How many has that horse won in two years not much but tonight had the juice to make two  moves

[Powerful Patricks Ghost]

Walker is the owner as well. Has been improving over the past few weeks and has shown some life late in the mile, but I don’t think you can find a reason why Presquille should’ve been 5-1, nor won the race. Wasn’t the best in this field.

Didn't play the card but went and looked at the pps to see what that hubbub was about. Horse has put up solid back halves in past two starts of 28.2, 28.3  28.1, 28.4  with no one remotely close in the field. Past 6 starts have had complete anchors in the bike. Saftic, Jason Ryan and an amateur.  Horse made up 9 lengths in the race last week to finish 6 lengths behind Bank Guard who was an absolute huge class plunger.


Who was the best in this field?
-Liam Needsome is 1 for 35 over past two years and has earnings of 61k with a life mark of 2:03. 
-Hetties Comander? Coming off of a qual after two consecutive breaks so you couldn't have been expecting a hard drive there.
-Cantabernet? Claimed off a Moreau and given a month off after the claim.
- Power Move is an absolute rat who should have his named changed.
-Bred for Greatness better? Hard to say but definitely isn't a fast one. Also finished a close 2nd. Everything not mentioned is absolutely not better.

[Powerful Patricks Ghost]

Yes but insiders knew that's why lower price we as gamblerswont know

The horse was exactly at the morning line odds. 

[willphorse]

PPG...you make a compelling case against the field! I would have to agree that you were spot on with many. This field was full of chronic losers and you probably couldn’t make much of a case for many. With that being said, I would be hard pressed to back a horse whose 0-23 with barely $10,000 in earnings over 2 years at 5-1.

Great back halves the last 2, but look at the results of those races... half the field close from the outer flow. Looking at this field, not many showed gate speed. JMac is aggressive off the car and can get one to the top. Maybe the driver hange made all the difference?

Whether or not people were “in the know” to bet this one, idk, but I will say that I personally would not bet such a horse at 5-1. In reference to the Late Pick 4, races like this are an “ALL” button... nobody likes to win, yet SOMEONE has to

[HornbyDuke]

Thanks very much for your time and insight. Some very good points. Certainly was a god awful field.

Funny when I handicapped it I saw the 5-1 ml and scratched my head. Ill give the ml guy credit - he was spot on.

I was live in P4's with the 167 but was by no means remotely confident. And outside of the 7, the return on the P4 wouldn't have been boxcars. So it's not like this was a P4 that was going to make my day.

In the past, I would have just turned the page. But been a few of these 0 for two yr horses winning lately. So much that when I look over the program I wonder if I have to look for the horse that would be difficult to perceive winning. 4 percent trainer. Not even close in this class for 2 yrs. Never gets away. Last time JM drove him was awful.

Gave the 5 a good look in advance and outside of the final quarters couldn't use.

Certainly appreciate quality of the field.  Guess it was a combination of the 0-31 and the trip JM either crafted on his skill or was given by the racing gods. Was certainly given a lot of room to wheel out in stretch and roll. And, boy was JM confident!


Suspicious people might think last Friday's and Saturdays cards would have been difficult to give a race to barn. Not so on a Monday in this field.

Who knows? Not me - just an opinion. But does certainly bear watching up north.

Funny, I play TB's and sports on occasion too. And while my thoughts might seem a little paranoid here,  I rarely have similar thoughts on the TB's and never on sports betting.

Thanks again.











I

[Brown jug]

all good points
nothing  criminal here( nothing like cams tux )
1. don't get fooled by the odds of 5.1, remember a horses odds are just a reflection of his chances of winning that particular race against the horses he is in against and less to do with previous races and odds
2. yes the horse was showing some form improvement
3. yes the rest of the field was horrible
4. looked good pre race on the track
5. driver improvement
6. don't get fooled by the time , that track was very fast if you look at some of the other miles
after all somebody had to win the race