Handicapping Angles; Successes & Failures, My Latest Failure

[swoodall]

I want one of these know it all 30 nothings to explain something to me.

They act like handicapping is easy and nothing more than a mathematical exercise.

So help me explain why this "math" isn't working?

Brower on Hambo day was explaining that he handicaps a lot of races based on 1st qt and Last qt speed because usually between the 1/4 and 3/4 pole the leader backs the pace down and nothing happens.

For the past 3 weeks I have taken the Track Master 1st qt and 4th qt Speed ratings and added them together for each horse in each race at all the major tracks.

I jot the total down next to the horse's number in the program. I get the Speed rating from Track Master Pro.

Given Brower's comments and what seems pretty obvious no matter which track you watch this seemed like a good angle to evaluate.

So I write them all down and when the races are over I compare the real results from the race to the predicted SR results using the first and last quarter Speed Ratings.

So far after 3 weeks this has been an exercise in futility.

Leaders still go a fast 1st qt to get the lead then back off the fractions and try to sprint home but....

The Track Master 1st 1/4 + 4th 1/4 Speed Rating addition is horrible!

The better the horses the worse the results.

It has actually been pretty accurate in the cheaper races enough to turn a profit and even catch a longshot or two.

What I can't figure out is why the better higher classed horses, who race the majority of their races exactly this way by backing down the front end, are the least likely to finish the way TM predicts?

Basically this should be pace handicapping but TM has a separate Composite Pace rating which sucks too.

That is why I thought focusing on the two quarters they actually race might work.

So far the results are not encouraging and I'm trying to identify where the error lies.

Maybe those individual quarter Speed Ratings just aren't that accurate?

[swoodall]

That is bullshit handicappin by brower,it makes little sense.not every horse is in ideal position between 1/4 and 3/4.some get great trip behind leader,,and some with good cover..cant, just look at start ?finish,althou I look at final closing kick and or early speed...…..got to say this,MY MUTE BUTTON is on when ever any announcer or track voice is giving advice on picks,whether it,s Saratoga thourobreds during the day or the buggies at night,,,DO NOT LISTEN TO ANY OF THERE OPINIONS,,,what make,s there pick any better than your own handicappin work..there paid to put on a pretty face for camera and try and act like they know what there doing,anybody can pick a big favorite,,but most cant hit anything above 8/1

I thought all he was doing was pointing out the obvious.

If a horse has no early speed in a 10 horse field and is last at the 1/4 pole he needs an over paced race to close into otherwise he has very little chance of winning.

On the other hand if the speed horses can go the last quarter same as the first they have a huge advantage when the middle 1/2 is a slow pace because obviously the back horses usually don't make any kind of aggressive movement until they turn for home.

Again this is obvious and basically the way 90% of all races are raced.

So how do those back horses outside of the front 4 plan on winning if they sit till the top of the stretch?

Well they have only two possibilities and that's out close the leaders with an exceptionally fast last quarter or hope the front shits the bed.

In most races where the middle fractions are soft the front wins.

What caught my ear was them pointing out with today's race bikes the 10th horse at the 1/4 isn't 10 lengths back.

He's more like 15 or 16 back.

Today's bikes are designed longer and allows drivers to lay back so far that it puts more distance between the nose of the trailing horse behind them and the nose of the horse they are driving forcing those trailing horse to make up even more ground to pass in the stretch.

All this chit chat seemed aimed at the novice viewer but it started me thinking in terms of the fractional times especially in the stretch.

If my horse is listed 5 lengths back turning for home and the leader comes home in 28.0 then I need to probably make up 6 in the stretch, at least a 26.4 quarter, to win due to the way these bikes are designed and the drivers lay back.

If my horse has never gone that fast of a last quarter before then I'm probably screwed.

Hence my dumb idea to focus on the 1st and 4th qt Speed Ratings listed in Track Master by combining just those two and see what results I would get.

It was just meant as tweek to the program to see how the results would compare to their Composite Rating that adds all four quarterly Speed Ratings together.

Which leads me to my thread and my question as to why these numbers are so skewed?

I didn't except the results to be so bad.

I did notice that some solid speed horses who have the lowest 1st 1/4 average Pace Style don't always have the highest 1st 1/4 Speed Rating for that race.

I would like one of the smart young guys to explain to me where the math is breaking stride?

[Papillon]

I want one of these know it all 30 nothings to explain something to me.

They act like handicapping is easy and nothing more than a mathematical exercise.

So help me explain why this "math" isn't working?

Brower on Hambo day was explaining that he handicaps a lot of races based on 1st qt and Last qt speed because usually between the 1/4 and 3/4 pole the leader backs the pace down and nothing happens.

For the past 3 weeks I have taken the Track Master 1st qt and 4th qt Speed ratings and added them together for each horse in each race at all the major tracks.

I jot the total down next to the horse's number in the program. I get the Speed rating from Track Master Pro.

Given Brower's comments and what seems pretty obvious no matter which track you watch this seemed like a good angle to evaluate.

So I write them all down and when the races are over I compare the real results from the race to the predicted SR results using the first and last quarter Speed Ratings.

So far after 3 weeks this has been an exercise in futility.

Leaders still go a fast 1st qt to get the lead then back off the fractions and try to sprint home but....

The Track Master 1st 1/4 + 4th 1/4 Speed Rating addition is horrible!

The better the horses the worse the results.

It has actually been pretty accurate in the cheaper races enough to turn a profit and even catch a longshot or two.

What I can't figure out is why the better higher classed horses, who race the majority of their races exactly this way by backing down the front end, are the least likely to finish the way TM predicts?

Basically this should be pace handicapping but TM has a separate Composite Pace rating which sucks too.

That is why I thought focusing on the two quarters they actually race might work.

So far the results are not encouraging and I'm trying to identify where the error lies.

Maybe those individual quarter Speed Ratings just aren't that accurate?

first of all you are a complete idiot even listening to anything Dave Brower says ... he is a laughing stock and an embarrassment... still believes post #1 is good and his mentality is stuck in the 80s as well as his handicapping

... and then you validate your idiocy by staring at the clock ... first and last quarters, middle halves, back halves, final times... that’s 1976 thinking

what’s even more hilarious is the said and spoken assumptions based on their misunderstanding of the fractions and internal analysis of the race

no wonder you always lose... it’s the way you think

your Hawthorne headwind theory was gut busting laughter material

[Zippychippy423]

I don’t remember when  “Compubet” handicapping started but will say ever since I use it they have been pretty spot on.  I will say that some tracks fair far better then others but they give you those stats. One angle I will share that is consistent is the money figure angle. Divide the starts for the year into the money won. Obviously the higher the figure the better the horse. If it’s early in the year use the previous years stats to get the number. The #1 most difficult thing to handicap for me is the trip a horse will get. I think the trip is 50% of how the outcome plays out.

[Smalltimer7932]

That same   problem happens at Hawthorne  with out a push the pace horse they follow the leader and horses can close from last even with a 26 last 1/4 they dont win .pace makes the race and we don't know how drivers are told to drive a specific  horse .until there out there going or who has  been told not to go I should say so it's not cheating as6/5 favor  but following  there orders .with out main trainers they wouldn't  make constant  cash  and we as bettors get screwed.

[McGIBBS]

USUALLY WHEN YOU WANT TO BE SUCCESSFUL AT SOMETHING, YOU ASK QUESTIONS AND GET KNOWLEDGE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR FIELD, SO WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT ANY ADVISE  FROM

[Smalltimer7932]

The same thing though its play at your own risk there's no math problem to solve how humans ride horses everyone's  got there own agenda

[Germy dDay]

The same thing though its play at your own risk there's no math problem to solve how humans ride horses everyone's  got there own agenda

                                                  ^

AND WHEN AT A TRACK,STAY AS FAR AWAY FROM IDIOTS LIKE THE ABOVE POSTER AND HOPE HIS STUPIDITY DONR RUB OFF

[Fatboy]

THE LOSERS CANT STOP LOSING IS WHAT IM SEEING

[LUCPARK]

cant we lose a race with

D I G N I T Y ..

[Fatboy]

cant we lose a race with

D I G N I T Y ..

IS THIS A POST EXCUSES HERE THREAD?

[spaheaven]

When Newton invented calculus he didnt include any theorems on whether the fix was in, which it usually is, and thusly is why math and logic fail to work when betting on horses.

[Fatboy]

When Newton invented calculus he didnt include any theorems on whether the fix was in, which it usually is, and thusly is why math and logic fail to work when betting on horses.

BUT NOT A FOOLS GAME?

[swoodall]

To those of you who offered a real opinion....thank you.

To the losers who can't resist displaying their lack of education....

I agree 100% with "Pace Makes The Race" which is why I started this thread.

My problem here is I do better using my best guess of how a race will set up vs. using TM's pace figures.

Thats where I'm asking for help understanding their logic behind their numbers.

When a race sets up exactly the way I expect those Fractional Speed Rating times from TM should be pretty accurate and produce positive results.

But so far over the last 3 weeks at the tracks I play (major ones) I have kept a hard copy of those programs with all TM's Pace numbers written down in each race and compared them to the results for each race.

It's not working and I'm trying to find the flaw.

Honestly I don't care who is juicing or cheating when the race sets up the way it is expected too, the results vs. the pace prediction should have a better track record.

And I can tell you right now that my buddies and I are out guessing the TM Program.

You can tweek the categories some to add or eliminate different factors in the calculations.

If someone has a knowledgeable suggestion I will use it and tell you the results.

[Fatboy]

To those of you who offered a real opinion....thank you.

To the losers who can't resist displaying their lack of education....

I agree 100% with "Pace Makes The Race" which is why I started this thread.

My problem here is I do better using my best guess of how a race will set up vs. using TM's pace figures.

Thats where I'm asking for help understanding their logic behind their numbers.

When a race sets up exactly the way I expect those Fractional Speed Rating times from TM should be pretty accurate and produce positive results.

But so far over the last 3 weeks at the tracks I play (major ones) I have kept a hard copy of those programs with all TM's Pace numbers written down in each race and compared them to the results for each race.

It's not working and I'm trying to find the flaw.

Honestly I don't care who is juicing or cheating when the race sets up the way it is expected too, the results vs. the pace prediction should have a better track record.

And I can tell you right now that my buddies and I are out guessing the TM Program.

You can tweek the categories some to add or eliminate different factors in the calculations.

If someone has a knowledgeable suggestion I will use it and tell you the results.

MY BEST GUESS IS FIND SOMETHING THAT WORKS
INSTEAD OF EXPLAING WHAT DOESNT IN 8 PARAGRAPHS OR LESS
THANX