CON-federate vs. Bythemissal TVG pace November 25th!

[SeattleSlew]

Not being a trainer I am always trying to understand why a very fast 3 year old has a tougher time beating older horses, especially if the 3 year old is just faster. Do racehorses actually get intimidated racing against older horses?

If you compare the "maturity" cycle of a horse to a human athlete, baseball players generally reach their "peak" at 26-29 years of age (probably similar for FB and BKB). 

At 3 a horse is still not yet fully grown or fully "mature" relative to the same kind of aging/skill/physical capability curve.  Thus, there is the expectation that a horse that is XYZ good at 3 years of age will be XYZ+ good at 4 and possibly XYZ++ good at 5.  I don't think they get intimidated (if they have been winning against their own age group, as they would be "brave" from that), but the older horses (even if not gifted with the same innate speed) are a bit "tougher. "

  As someone who has seen all of the top horses from 1965 through today (with many of those in person) there is no doubt that Confederate is one of the top 3 year olds (very difficult to compare different eras) I have seen, and I think he is capable of giving a good account of himself against the aged horses he will be facing.  I also think that Hoosier Park and the Meadowlands are very favorable tracks for Confederate, given the long stretches.  BytheMissal is a very powerful horse.  If Yannick doesn't try to get too cute with him (as he loves to try and get away with slow 2nd and 3rd quarters if he is on the lead), it should be a great race, but I think Confederate does have that "extra gear" (seen best when he finished 2nd at Woodbine Mohawk earlier in the year, as he was pacing out of his skin near the end when Tetrick was late to crank him up) and will get by him in the stretch if both horses are racing healthy. 

[wizardofoz]

The Meadowlands did almost $3.2 million last night with a 'decent' card, so on TVG night, with hopefully a dry track and full fields, the betting should be intense and active with 'top' horses in most of the finals. The TVG OPEN PACE should do HUGE numbers if that field materializes.

[Mailbox Money]

Not being a trainer I am always trying to understand why a very fast 3 year old has a tougher time beating older horses, especially if the 3 year old is just faster. Do racehorses actually get intimidated racing against older horses?

The best 3yr old race against the same field most of the year and that leaves horses who are satisfied with being  2nd all season. When the 3yr old meets the older bunch,the entire field wants to be first,therefore the youngster gets nothing handed to him! The result is that the 3yr old has to RACE the entire mile and not only the last 3/8 as he was accustomed to. This is my opinion,I'm sure that there are many more.

[Generation XYZ]

If you compare the "maturity" cycle of a horse to a human athlete, baseball players generally reach their "peak" at 26-29 years of age (probably similar for FB and BKB). 

At 3 a horse is still not yet fully grown or fully "mature" relative to the same kind of aging/skill/physical capability curve.  Thus, there is the expectation that a horse that is XYZ good at 3 years of age will be XYZ+ good at 4 and possibly XYZ++ good at 5.  I don't think they get intimidated (if they have been winning against their own age group, as they would be "brave" from that), but the older horses (even if not gifted with the same innate speed) are a bit "tougher. "

  As someone who has seen all of the top horses from 1965 through today (with many of those in person) there is no doubt that Confederate is one of the top 3 year olds (very difficult to compare different eras) I have seen, and I think he is capable of giving a good account of himself against the aged horses he will be facing.  I also think that Hoosier Park and the Meadowlands are very favorable tracks for Confederate, given the long stretches.  BytheMissal is a very powerful horse.  If Yannick doesn't try to get too cute with him (as he loves to try and get away with slow 2nd and 3rd quarters if he is on the lead), it should be a great race, but I think Confederate does have that "extra gear" (seen best when he finished 2nd at Woodbine Mohawk earlier in the year, as he was pacing out of his skin near the end when Tetrick was late to crank him up) and will get by him in the stretch if both horses are racing healthy.

Seattle Slew, Thanks for using my ability and Stamina as a reference point. Glad to assist.

[SeattleSlew]

Seattle Slew, Thanks for using my ability and Stamina as a reference point. Glad to assist.

I used the word "expectation" (but not the certainty).  There are exceptions to every rule

[Generation XYZ]

I used the word "expectation" (but not the certainty).  There are exceptions to every rule

Point well taken.

[wizardofoz]

Confederate, the Meadowlands Pace champion whose 1:46.1 clocking at the Red Mile made him the fastest sophomore pacer ever could take on Breeders Crown winner Bythemissal (a winner of four straight) and Tattoo Artist (a winner of seven straight until Bythemissal beat him in the Crown). Confederate seeks to become the first 3-year-old pacer to ever win the FanDuel Pace........CON-federate skipped the Progress Pace eliminations at Dover tonight so it looks like it is a go for the Fanduel next Saturday to make more history for the stud fee if successful.

[wizardofoz]

RACE 4 - Meadowlands - NJ - November 18, 2023
Conditions: Qualifier - 3 Year Olds & Up Horses & Geldings  QuaDistance: 1 Mile
 
PP    Horse   Med   2023 North America YTD    Driver    Trainer   ML   Claim
    Equip   Sts    W    P    S    Time    Earnings         Stable   Odds   Price
1    Lyrical Genius A
  FOR: 22 2-1-5 $20333       -     -     -     -     -     -(i)     Jordan Stratton    Cory Stratton       
2    Ferragamo Hanover
 3       12     0     2     2     -     $8800     Yannick Gingras    Paul Blumenfeld       
3    Conboyville   L    23     2     5     5     1:54.0H     $50040     Cory Stratton    Cory Stratton       
4    Finnian Hanover
       8     1     2     1     1:55.3F     $15800     Marcus Miller    Erv Miller       
5    Ds It`snowornever       5     1     0     0     1:52.1F     $7000     Scott Zeron    Travis Alexander       
6    Confederate
 3   L    14     13     1     0     1:46.1M     $1630354     Tim Tetrick    Brett Pelling                        They are qualifying him Saturday against bottom level stiffs so he should win by 20 if they are serious about getting him sharp for the TVG Open the following week.

[shotgunner]

Over/under for his last quarter in his qualifier at 25.2.

[Generation XYZ]

Cant wait to see Bowden take it in the ass when Confederate gets smoked by the older horses. Fucking smug carrot top, asshole.

[shotgunner]

Cant wait to see Bowden take it in the ass when Confederate gets smoked by the older horses. Fucking smug carrot top, asshole.

He fuck your woman or something?

Confederate should hit the board unless something goes wrong and has a decent chance to win. Hate Diamond Creek all you want but Confederate is the real deal. I think the fact that Yannick is gonna put bythemissal on the front is going to really benefit confederate. I don’t know Confederate has the interest to wire these types as a 3 yr old. But give him a target? I like his chances.

[wizardofoz]

$25,000 was paid already for the ongait.com auction and his fertility has not been checked yet.   https://ongait.com/Listings/View/24489

[The Thorn]

One breeding for charity for the Tioga Relief Fund

[Open bridle]

 Bowden must be confident that Confederate can win.  Confederate is a very good horse, but I will be surprised if he can beat the older horses.

[wizardofoz]

RACE 4 - Meadowlands - NJ - November 18, 2023
Conditions: Qualifier - 3 Year Olds & Up Horses & Geldings
Gait: Pace Class: Qua Distance: 1 mile Track Cond: FT Temp-Allow: 50-0
HN    Horse    PP    1/4    1/2    3/4    Str    Finish   Actual   LQ   Odds    Driver    Trainer
6    Confederate
 3, Sweet Lou-Geothermal    6    1/1Q    1/1Q    1/1H    1/4    1/11H   1:51.2    27.0   NB     Tim Tetrick    Brett Pelling
1    Lyrical Genius A    1    2/1Q    2/1Q    2/1H    2/4    2/11H   1:53.3    29.0   NB     Jordan Stratton    Cory Stratton
3    Conboyville    3    3/3T    3/3Q    3/4    3/8    3/20T   1:55.3    30.2   NB     Cory Stratton    Cory Stratton
4    Finnian Hanover
 3, Rockin Image-
 Fashion Majorette    4    4/6Q    4/5T    4/8H    5/15Q    4/31   1:57.3    31.3   NB     Marcus Miller    Erv Miller
2    Ferragamo Hanover
 3, Sweet Lou-
 Fashion Ecstasy    2    5/8    5/7Q    5°/9H    4/15    5/31Q   1:57.3    31.2   NB     Andrew McCarthy    Paul Blumenfeld
5    Ds It`snowornever    5    6/10H    6/12Q    6/14H    6/18T    6/35H   1:58.2    31.1   NB     Scott Zeron    Travis Alexander
Time:    28.4   56.2    (27.3)   1:24.2    (28.0)   1:51.2    (27.0)