The Empire Report - Monday, November 20, 2023 - Race Analysis
Tonight's card will have plenty of late changes as Marohn and Buter will be off their drives, and it's very
possible that Kakaley will as well - some adjustments may need to be made as changes are reported
RACE 1 - (3) JUDDY DOUGLAS A has been "all or nothing" in his 5 starts since the recent $40K claim -
if he shows up in the right mood tonight, he can be a very big threat in the opener (also, be aware if there's
a driver change). (1) MOONLITE DRIVE A took no $$ for his U.S. debut and was caught in the back of
the pack with no chance - drops in class, moves inside, adds Lasix, and is likely to bring a much more
serious effort tonight - very live player. (2) CYRUS N finished well last week, racing conservatively off a
bad date - he drops another peg, lands inside, and definitely fits...but also loses Bartlett. (4) BIG SIR is
winless on the year and hard to like off his last couple of starts - his barn did send out a couple of winners
last week, though, so perhaps he's worth a look at the right price? (5) RJ SPORTS IMAGE was red hot for
months but has shown some major signs of tailing in his last few - this MAY be a wake-up spot, but he
won't offer any value at that 9/5 ML price. (6) FLOW WITH JOE does fit very well here but he's missed
time, draws poorly, and is prone to bad starts - demand a big price if trying him on top. (7) SWEET TROY
likely needs a drop in class and much better post to show his best. (
PACE N PRIDE N draws Post 8 after
being away since July - good spot to pass, and watch
RACE 2- (1) ROCKIN JUKEBOX instantly morphed into a new horse after being claimed by the Super
Siblings a while back but he's somehow elevated his game even more in recent weeks, throwing some
absolutely huge miles - he's facing a very strong NW3000) filed tonight but he draws the pole, and just may
sharp enough to pull this off. (2) JAHAN HANOVER has held his form beautifully as he's climbed back up
the class ladder recently and it was certainly no shame to lose to the very classy DESPERATE MAN last
week - more than capable here with the right trip. (4) SONNY WEAVER N has been razor sharp for a long
time, and tonight's class jump really shouldn't slow him down - if he ends up with a good driver change, he
could be worth considering. (3) ANOTHRMASTRPIECE N has been going evenly in the Open and now
drops down to a level he beat twice in Sept. - losing Bartlett does hurt his chances, though. (5) FORTIFY
has been going strong miles almost every week for some time - he lands in a field of many OTHER sharp
rivals, however, and may be looking at a smaller slice tonight. (6) AMERICAN DEALER N is more comfy
at this level than the Open but the tough draw (in a good field) could leave him with only a minor share
tonight. (
CRANBOURNE N had a solid resume Down Under and has done little wrong since arriving in
the U.S. - may have to wait for a kinder spot to do more serious damage, however. (7) FAMILY RECIPE
faces an uphill battle from this brutal spot.
RACE 3 - (1) TUGGIN ON MY HEART had been very sharp for some time but was one of a few horses
from the barn that had an "off week" while Joe B. was away from the action for a while - moves all the way
inside, and the guess is that he'll be cranked up for a big mile tonight. (3) SLING SHOCK picked up an
overdue victory 2 back but was no match in the lane for the sharp top pair last week - the drop in for a tag is
a logical one, and he should be able to have a big say tonight (2) MY MIKI BEACH perked up in mid-Sept.
and has been solid ever since (for a barn that has been going well) - legitimate player from this spot. (5) ST
ONEBRIDGE REX had a useful tightener on 11/6 off the long layoff and was ready last week, scoring the
pocket victory - would really be no surprise if he was able to take another. (4) FULSOME has proven to be
a solid fit at this level since arriving 6 starts back - good one to include on the bottom of exotics. (7) STRIK
ING IMPACT fits beautifully and is good right now...but would need a lot to go his way to reach from out
here. (
TUFFENUFTOWEARPIN
K is another that's racing well, but likely a victim of the draw tonight.
(6) KOUNT BLASTER arrives to a hot barn but does seem a little bit cheaper - we shall see
RACE 4 - (3) NOME HANOVER comes into tonight having won 6 of his last 7 starts (2nd in the other),
with 3 straight here at Yonkers - hard to go past, even though he will be racing for a new barn tonight. (4)
ARRHYTHMIC SURGE had been incredibly sharp recently, but was ignored in the wagering last week
(Post 7) and had no offer at all - guessing that he'll bounce back tonight as he reunites with Bongiorno. (1)
ALOTBETTOR N was used for the top from Post 8 last week and can be forgiven for getting outbrushed
by #7 to 3/4s - he's rock solid at this level, and should be right in the mix tonight. (2) PEDRO HANOVER
is another that has been very steady lately - gets a good draw, and a live trip could land him somewhere on
the ticket. (5) GLACIS has been away for 3 weeks and seems unlikely to get the hot pace he'd need to use
his late rally - maybe some minor spoils? (6) BOILING OAR was a solid pocket winner returning from PA
2 back but no factor last week - may struggle against these with the tough draw. (7) BALLERAT BOOME
RANG appreciated the move inside last week and used a strong brush to propel himself to victory - may
have a tougher time getting in play from out here, though. (
BILL HALEY N has been away since July
and lands all the way outside - pass for now
RACE 5 - (4) HELLABALOU crushed this class as the 1/5 favorite last week and that made it 4 wins and a
head loss 2nd from his last 5 starts....but he was inconceivably allowed to DRAW for posts 4-8 tonight and
as fate would have it, he landed the best possible position - stamps him as the one to beat, once again. (2)
AMERICAN MERCURY is another head scratcher as he was assigned an inside draw despite hitting board
in 4 straight Opens, including a victory - we may see Gingras and Bongiorno take advantage of their good
fortune, and take these 1-2 around the track. (6) LEONIDAS A was finally hitting on all cylinders with that
win on 10/10 but he has only 1 start in the 6 weeks since then and also draws poorly for tonight - may not
be at his absolute best here. (7) SIMON SAYS HANOVER was scary-sharp here in his last 3 starts - he
continued his form spree in a pair of Chester starts, but gets stuck with a bad draw (off 17 days) for his YR
return, and may be at a disadvantage tonight. (1) BURNHAM BOY N is really thriving since the recent
barn change, and didn't embarrass himself stepping up to the Open last week - a small piece is within reach.
(5) ROCKNROLL RUNA A had been super for ages, so last week's (rare) dud was definitely a surprise -
hard to say if he'll bounce right back, or if he may be tailing. (3) RED RIGHT HAND has found his form
lately but he moves up, loses Bartlett, and will likely be handled conservatively. (
IDEALSOMEMAGIC
A is having an unbelievable year but he draws Post 8 after finishing up the track at Rosecroft last week and
will probably be handled very conservatively tonight.
RACE 6 - Tough race: (2) CHANTEE started the year off strong and is still a weekly player, months later -
he rallied to win one level up 3 back, and may be able to do the same tonight if the trip goes his way - one
of several with a chance in here. (4) DELIGHTFUL DUDE N has quietly banked over $130K this year, and
has become a pretty reliable commodity - he won't be stuck coming from way back tonight, and looms a
very legitimate player. (
THIS IS THE PLAN is obviously not the FFAller we're used to seeing right now,
but it's not like he's been terrible, either - might be able to beat these even from out here IF Gingras can find
him a manageable journey. (3) WHATS STANELY GOT A went on a nice form spree and was a solid
weekly Open player - his last two haven't been nearly as good, however, and he's missed 3 weeks - would
need a decent price to try him on top here. (1) FREQUENT IMAGE is another that has taken 3 weeks off
after seeing his form go a bit south - we'll see which direction he heads in. (5) BENHOPE RULZ N had
been knocking on the door for weeks (at good prices!) before last week's front end score vs. a bit easier -
faces tougher now, but would still consider him for 3rd/4th. (7) GREAT SOMEWHERE has 10 wins and
$184K this year but is also in the midst of a bit of a slump - not sure he's up for Post 7 right now. (6)
HEAVEN ON HIGH N struggled from similar spots in his last pair
RACE 7 - (4) ROCK DIAMONDS N is another from the barn that just didn't seem fully cranked last week
- on his best, he'd be very dangerous against these - worth using as long as he's not overbet. (5) NUTTIN
BUT FINESSE wasn't bad last week, finishing behind a trio of Open types - a live trip could give him a
chance to upset, at a decent price. (1) LAYTON HANOVER got some class relief last week and was a solid
front end winner - if he can build come confidence off that victory, he'll have a chance to make it 2 in a row.
(2) BLUE LOU was 3 for 8 with $145K at 2 but he just never got his 3YO season in gear - he recently
changed hands and was a sharp 1:50.1 winner in PA in his 2nd start for new connections - gets a big driver
change for his YR debut, and could easily be a threat here vs. his elders. (3) LOUS BEACH put together
back to back sharp start before a sick scratch on 10/7 - could be short tonight off 3 weeks. (6) ALADDIN
was handled conservatively last week racing off a bad date (arriving from Canada) - may need another start
(and some class relief). (7) MY ULTIMATE BYRON A and (
WALKINSHAW N both figure to end up
too far back to seriously threaten tonight
RACE 8 - (1) SHAKESPEARE has now won 3 in a row and was reclaimed from his last by the barn that
won 2 of them - will be the heavy chalk from the pole, and clearly the one to beat. (2) LOUS THE ATTITU
DE really fell apart when down in KY but his last couple in PA suggest that he's back on the right track
(even if they were vs. cheaper) - could be a big part of this from start to finish. (7) TWO FACED was sharp
here in a pair of October starts - he was scratched sick on 10/30 but still raced well in his last off the bad
date - not sure he can find a way to overcome the draw, but he'll offer some good value. (4) TOPVILLE SO
MROCKET hit a rough patch recently but turned in a much better effort last week (in an easier field, on the
lead) - we'll see if he can be as effective tonight. (5) KILL A DRAGON was no factor in his only local try
and the jury is still out on him - maybe one to throw in for 3rd/4th? (3) GOOD INVESTMENT backed up
badly in NJ last week - prefer to see a better effort before considering. (6) BLUE OCEAN was no factor
last week from a similar spot, at a big price. (
GENTLE GIANT draws Post 8 off 3 weeks
RACE 9 - (4) GOTHIC ROCK would be more appealing in 30s (at a good price) but he's still hard to
ignore against THIS field of 40s...even at a shorter price - the post relief and overall softness of this field
make him a very logical threat. (5) SETH HANOVER is just 2 for 32 this year and is listed as the 9/5 ML
choice...but he's another that really does seem sharper than most of these right now. (1) WAR DAN DELIG
HT was a winner 4 back but hasn't had much impact in his last 3 tries against the 40s - he may be able to
have bigger say tonight, though. (
TIN ROOF RAIDER really hasn't been sharp enough to really "like" in
here, but he wouldn't be the first horse that Yannick just woke up from an outside post, and put into play -
not a bad bomb for longshot fans. (3) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER hasn't been sharp in some time - prefer
others, but wouldn't be shocked to see him wake up a bit vs. these. (7) SULLIVAN got really sharp vs. the
25s/30s but a series of bad posts have left him as no factor recently vs. the 40s - another bad post tonight.
(2) MR KELLY shocked when 2nd at 82-1 last week, but the trip/circumstances played a big role - may not
be quite as opportunistic tonight. (6) ON THE VIRG doesn't seem a threat to be a player right now
RACE 10 - (1) CROSS CREEK was our play last week and he was enjoying a beautiful pocket trip behind
the favorite when that one broke to the top of the lane, costing this guy a lot of momentum (and any
chance)- he'll likely be a shorter price tonight, but may still be worth a play. (5) PANETTONE HANOVER
had a disastrous first local try, first being terribly erratic at the start, then getting knocked down to the half
(and forced wide), never really able to fully recover - changed hands after that start, was used hard in NJ
and tired - returns to YR on Lasix for the 2nd time, and can be a big threat with a smoother journey. (3) FU
GLEMAN had tough posts in his last pair and wasn't part of the action- can easily have a bigger say tonight
with the post improvement. (4) LOUIE HANOVER has disappointed for weeks, but may have hinted at
slight improvement last time - we'll see if he can build off that. (7) CONTROL GROUP has been racing ok
out of town but may be a little cheap and does draw poorly. (
PINE BUSH MONSTAH raced better than
expected last time, but the move from the rail to Post 8 figures to really hurt. (6) VANDALISM showed
little in his local debut
