Reverse the trips and Highland Kismet wins. I don’t know what race you watched. McClure did all the work coming first over into a monsoon and only lost by a length. While Karl. In my opinion interfered with 2 horses in the stretch drive. Karl absolutely tripped out. As soon as he let McClure in. He was guaranteed a 2nd over tow.
Your explanation is 100% on the mark. Of the three favorites, Karl got the easiest trip. TCI was parked out on a turn during the fastest quarter of the race then was on the front for the fastest half of the race. Highland Kismet was first over while Karl drafted from second over. People greatly underestimate the difference drafting makes.
A race is the combination of the horses and the drivers. Gingras gave Karl a perfect trip, McClure gave his horse a chance to win. Given the conditions, Miller probably went too fast in the first quarter and to the half. The next time they meet, anyone one of them could win if they get a good trip. On this day Karl was the best based on ability
and perfect drive.