Author Topic: Progress on late odds changes.....  (Read 1827 times)

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Grandstand Handicapper

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Progress on late odds changes.....
« on: August 29, 2024, 09:20:51 PM »
Broken windows theory...open windows theory...betting after the bell...and so are the days of our lives...LOL.

Well, whatever they are a byproduct of...here is some interesting progress...

https://paulickreport.com/news/horseplayers-category/world-pool-addresses-horse-racings-achilles-heel-by-reducing-late-odds-changes

Any1Left

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2024, 04:44:07 AM »
To me this is amazing and it puts me in shock that this topic gets no posts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,    At Mohawk tonight in the first race 7 and 8 let the gate really well and the exactor dropped 70 percent and the 8 went from 9-1 to 9-2 and the doubles also dropped 70 percent off the winner,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,At HOOSIER in the first the 4 left the gate first and dropped from 6-1 to 5-2 and the ex dropped 60 percent and the double dropped 80 percent plus all other exotics paid poorly and this is a every day and almost every day situation and people getting paid to monitor pools see nothing,,,,,,,,,,,, This can not be a non issue to anyone in the game as people like ROGER HUSTON who always said i never complain about payoffs when i win and a winner is a winner and as someone who has always played this game for a living i understand that i want just reward and when 3 10-1 shots pop in and the tri pays 400 dollars that something is really wrong and when a favorite breaks as the gate leaves and the win pool gets crushed and the ex comes back real poor and the tri and super really stink that it is not possible to win and yes i have to be near the cancel button before they leave every race to compete and survive and the racetracks think this is great as more money shows up when a small price horse breaks and racetrack only looks at handle,,,,,,,,,,,,, Almost all money today is showing up from adw sites and racetrack handle really gives racetracks very little profit but it shows government people that the game is thriving and racetrack need to show that this is a viable sport,,,,,,,,,I remember when the big M FIRST STARTED that at midnight i could watch a show that i never dreamed was possible with never stop movement the entire card and payoffs that made racing look legit and as i say on a daily basis does anybody not see that todays racing is crap with only quarter pulls from small priced horses and the biggest speed highways being WESTERN FAIR AND NORTHFIELD were one holes never left poor years ago are now single file racing with the favorites sitting 1-2 by the quarter pole in most races,,,,,,,,,, Its rarely a real big overlay payoff that occurs these days and almost always a huge underlay,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Frankie T

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2024, 08:38:32 AM »
Broken windows theory...open windows theory...betting after the bell...and so are the days of our lives...LOL.

Well, whatever they are a byproduct of...here is some interesting progress...

https://paulickreport.com/news/horseplayers-category/world-pool-addresses-horse-racings-achilles-heel-by-reducing-late-odds-changes

There is an easy solution that would eliminate most of this but the industry will not accept it.

1) Betting ends at post time
2) The starting gate does not move until after post time.

Papillon

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2024, 01:18:57 PM »
Broken windows theory...open windows theory...betting after the bell...and so are the days of our lives...LOL.

Well, whatever they are a byproduct of...here is some interesting progress...

https://paulickreport.com/news/horseplayers-category/world-pool-addresses-horse-racings-achilles-heel-by-reducing-late-odds-changes

nice article

too bad this does not apply to North American harness racing--where betting after the bell occurs every race and is a major chunk of the handle
« Last Edit: August 30, 2024, 01:37:57 PM by Papillon »

Any1Left

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2024, 01:19:49 PM »
I find it amazing how uneducated the people on this site are about gambling and the horsemen have always been a group that knows very little about gambling and yes pap is the one exception on this site,,,,,,,,,,,, There is one pro gambler named SETH ROSENFELD the owner of BEACH TOWEL that just plays TB racing these days that posts on a TB site that is a very successful player and post on a TB SITE that knows all about the game but does not post here,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Racetracks today have lost many players to death or going broke or just to old and most that i speak to find it boring with way to many favorites and high rake,,,,,,,,,,,, RACETRACKS today have BS pools created by computer betting and the main company is called ELITE TURF CLUB and racetracks have allowed them access to the tote system and they make their bets with seconds to post and eliminate all overlays at least that is what they claim in articles to do but i believe they also bet a few seconds into the race and a computer system can destroy all pools,,,,,,,,,,,,,,RACETRACKS WILL NEVER ELIMINATE THIS SYSTEM AND MOST INDUSTRY PEOPLE I HAVE SPOKEN TO BELIEVE THIS IS NOW A MUST FOR THE GAME AS WITHOUT IT POOLS WOULD MAKE THE GAME LOOK DEAD,,,,,,,,,,,,,sHUTTING BETTING OF BEFORE THE GATE LEAVES IS NOT A OPTION THEY WOULD CONSIDER as it would kill slots as the racetracks real handle would show this to be a dead game,,,,,,,,,,Do some people believe that new people are flocking in to bet this sport,,,,,,,,,,,,, The well hidden 23 year olds that would be excited by single file racing with small payoffs and everyone knows that shutting down betting is the fair thing to do and the elite turf club would shut down and pools would drop to nothing and governments would know this is a dead product that has very little public interest outside of the elderly that went to the races with dad and this process does not exist these days,,,,,,,,,,, pEOPLE DO NOT SCREAM UNDER THE TV AT RACETRACKS THESE DAYS and the excitement of the big cash is gone,,,,,,,,,Fact is this game is rotten with no respect to the fans with the all around crap product and with computer betting  the game just produces underlays with a boring product that is drug induced,,,,,,,,,, The BURKES AND BANKAS AND MOREAUS in this game are not the problem or a very small problem as the big problem is racetrack management who hire people to hide truths and protect all the wrongs in this game and there is no builders but a group of people letting corruption hit limits that have hit max and horsemen are happy with it because they have no pride in this industry,,,,,,,,

Papillon

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2024, 01:26:11 PM »
To me this is amazing and it puts me in shock that this topic gets no posts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,    At Mohawk tonight in the first race 7 and 8 let the gate really well and the exactor dropped 70 percent and the 8 went from 9-1 to 9-2 and the doubles also dropped 70 percent off the winner,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,At HOOSIER in the first the 4 left the gate first and dropped from 6-1 to 5-2 and the ex dropped 60 percent and the double dropped 80 percent plus all other exotics paid poorly and this is a every day and almost every day situation and people getting paid to monitor pools see nothing,,,,,,,,,,,, This can not be a non issue to anyone in the game as people like ROGER HUSTON who always said i never complain about payoffs when i win and a winner is a winner and as someone who has always played this game for a living i understand that i want just reward and when 3 10-1 shots pop in and the tri pays 400 dollars that something is really wrong and when a favorite breaks as the gate leaves and the win pool gets crushed and the ex comes back real poor and the tri and super really stink that it is not possible to win and yes i have to be near the cancel button before they leave every race to compete and survive and the racetracks think this is great as more money shows up when a small price horse breaks and racetrack only looks at handle,,,,,,,,,,,,, Almost all money today is showing up from adw sites and racetrack handle really gives racetracks very little profit but it shows government people that the game is thriving and racetrack need to show that this is a viable sport,,,,,,,,,I remember when the big M FIRST STARTED that at midnight i could watch a show that i never dreamed was possible with never stop movement the entire card and payoffs that made racing look legit and as i say on a daily basis does anybody not see that todays racing is crap with only quarter pulls from small priced horses and the biggest speed highways being WESTERN FAIR AND NORTHFIELD were one holes never left poor years ago are now single file racing with the favorites sitting 1-2 by the quarter pole in most races,,,,,,,,,, Its rarely a real big overlay payoff that occurs these days and almost always a huge underlay,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

accurate observations and thank you

i have been saying this for years and i get chastised even though it is true

too bad many are in denial about this

i was also up until 2008--but i opened my eyes and saw the fleecing

all i get is "show me the proof" bullshit

the proof is right in front of your nose

if they didnt let the bets in after the race starts-there would be a massive handle loss that the industry doesnt want to lose

waiting for the regulars to say "show me the proof" --but they are too ignorant to admit it happens

pocketrocketwinner

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2024, 02:12:40 PM »
I am not a CAW. As a human, with average internet strength, I am able to cancel win wagers on breakers up to about 1 second before the gate leaves with my adw. CAWs are betting after the public. That part is absolutely true. But. They are not watching races and betting leavers. They aren't even humans. They are sophisticated algos analyzing pools and sending in hundreds if bets in under 1 second. At least NYRA got rid of them of them in the win pool. But nyra has so many other problems it's lipstick on a pig. The meadowlands late money is completely odd. Whoever it is, it's not a traditional CAW, they fire incredible amounts to win on favorites. Hard to predict when they unload and no. It's not only on horses leaving the gate.

Any1Left

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2024, 02:33:48 PM »
Pocket rocket ,,,,,,,,You are correct about your post and much of what you talk about is simply not understood by most on this site and yes i know how the bets are being made but something i can not grasp is when reading about the elite betting club saying that they now bet 42 percent of the handle in horse racing as the numbers do not make any sense to me of being possible and they claim to lose but after rebate make huge numbers and my brain can not figure out how this is possible,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Those numbers say to me that no one can make money as the chop would make it impossible and there is only one site that you can get huge rebate that i know of and to bet with this site you have to bet huge numbers,,,,,,,,,,,

pocketrocketwinner

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2024, 02:40:24 PM »
Pocket rocket ,,,,,,,,You are correct about your post and much of what you talk about is simply not understood by most on this site and yes i know how the bets are being made but something i can not grasp is when reading about the elite betting club saying that they now bet 42 percent of the handle in horse racing as the numbers do not make any sense to me of being possible and they claim to lose but after rebate make huge numbers and my brain can not figure out how this is possible,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Those numbers say to me that no one can make money as the chop would make it impossible and there is only one site that you can get huge rebate that i know of and to bet with this site you have to bet huge numbers,,,,,,,,,,,

A friendly suggestion; stay away from the major t-bred signals if CAW play is important factor in where you play. NYRA etc is rampant CAW playgrounds. They will tell you yeah the exacta price stinks but look at what you got on the win price! It's nonsense.
Harness: places like scioto have no CAW play 99% of the time

Calhoun

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2024, 03:11:31 PM »
I am not a CAW. As a human, with average internet strength, I am able to cancel win wagers on breakers up to about 1 second before the gate leaves with my adw. CAWs are betting after the public. That part is absolutely true. But. They are not watching races and betting leavers. They aren't even humans. They are sophisticated algos analyzing pools and sending in hundreds if bets in under 1 second. At least NYRA got rid of them of them in the win pool. But nyra has so many other problems it's lipstick on a pig. The meadowlands late money is completely odd. Whoever it is, it's not a traditional CAW, they fire incredible amounts to win on favorites. Hard to predict when they unload and no. It's not only on horses leaving the gate.
What ADW do you use?

I find it interesting that your ADW video feed is within 1 second of the gate leaving (which I also take as the time pools close).

Do you have all your wagers for a race "queued up" to cancel? In other words, are your choices to either let your bets go on or cancel them all?

What level of internet speed/gigs to you have?

It's an interesting topic. I have 2 gig service and none of my ADWs are close to what you're experiencing.

 


pocketrocketwinner

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2024, 03:19:07 PM »
What ADW do you use?

I find it interesting that your ADW video feed is within 1 second of the gate leaving (which I also take as the time pools close).

Do you have all your wagers for a race "queued up" to cancel? In other words, are your choices to either let your bets go on or cancel them all?

What level of internet speed/gigs to you have?

It's an interesting topic. I have 2 gig service and none of my ADWs are close to what you're experiencing.

I use many. The one that seems to have the closest to real time video where I can cancel up to the start is TVG. I have the same gig as you, I think. Maybe 1 gig. If there is a breaking question, I will have my win bet on 1 ticket and have that queued and finger on cancel, yes. I can't have all tickets queued up so the verticals stay live tickets unless the horse is way off gate then I try to cancel the largest tickets in order until race off. There is also a daily limit as how to many of these you can do, I think it's 20 tickets. There is also a total dollar amount you can cancel in a day.

Papillon

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2024, 03:19:56 PM »
I am not a CAW. As a human, with average internet strength, I am able to cancel win wagers on breakers up to about 1 second before the gate leaves with my adw. CAWs are betting after the public. That part is absolutely true. But. They are not watching races and betting leavers. They aren't even humans. They are sophisticated algos analyzing pools and sending in hundreds if bets in under 1 second. At least NYRA got rid of them of them in the win pool. But nyra has so many other problems it's lipstick on a pig. The meadowlands late money is completely odd. Whoever it is, it's not a traditional CAW, they fire incredible amounts to win on favorites. Hard to predict when they unload and no. It's not only on horses leaving the gate.

you are mistaken about this, agree not all of the betting after the bell comes from Elite and or other CAWs

but another fact is the rebate players in Lexington have extra time to bet after the bell--and they are human

they watch who blasts and who is a laggard-then bet

they pay for this privilege-sacrificing some of their rebate for the ability to wager after the race starts

one suspiciously little known fact is about  Lexington is that they pay big money for a "real time" satellite feed--no 7 or second delay--this "latency" gives them even more time

do you ever notice that almost single time that an exacta pays less than the winner--usually the half mile tracks like Harrington or Western Fair--the bet is always traced back to the Lexington hub?

there was a recent one at Harrington, i emailed the GM there and it was confirmed it was a successful "gatepunch" very late(obviously after)and it came from the Lexington hub. This always the case.

I have communicated with a great guy named Pat Cummings, who is career is wagering integrity issues, i frequently mention the Lexington hub and he told me they are aware and working on it. that was 2 years ago.




why dont these computers ever plunge the odds on a breaker?--the reason they can bet after the bell

this has been going for over 20 years, but getting worse as the industry is starving for handle--and they dont care about from where it comes
« Last Edit: August 30, 2024, 03:30:31 PM by Papillon »

pocketrocketwinner

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2024, 03:37:52 PM »
I'll reserve my opinion on Mr Cummings.

What you are referencing about the red mile is that many years ago, they paid for real time video to accommodate their gate callers. In todays age of enhanced tecnology, that is no longer needed. Any legit adw offers close to real time video today. There has never ever been any proof of any kind that indivuals there or anywhere paid their way to betting after the race.started. That would be a very serious felony and everyone involved would be in jail for a very long time if proven to be true.

Papillon

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2024, 03:49:40 PM »
I'll reserve my opinion on Mr Cummings.

What you are referencing about the red mile is that many years ago, they paid for real time video to accommodate their gate callers. In todays age of enhanced tecnology, that is no longer needed. Any legit adw offers close to real time video today. There has never ever been any proof of any kind that indivuals there or anywhere paid their way to betting after the race.started. That would be a very serious felony and everyone involved would be in jail for a very long time if proven to be true.

of course they will never incriminate themselves--but it is still happening there

i knew a few large rebate gamblers and they told me a bunch of gatepunchers have flocked to Lexington because they know they can do it

i have heard rumors about a few that paid $10k a month to bet after the bell--also have heard that they also have reduced some of the rebate for the ability to bet after the bell

i have never been there so of course i havent eye witnessed it--but have been told by pro gamblers i know that its no real secret Lexington is famous for the past posting


disagree with the modern technology angle allowing you almost a one second look at it

we can respectfully disagree
« Last Edit: August 30, 2024, 03:53:28 PM by Papillon »

davenchop

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Re: Progress on late odds changes.....
« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2024, 03:52:44 PM »
"cognitive bias" for all the minion brained tards on this site..look it up
and then go upstairs from your basement room
 and show your mom you learned something today..
you cant lose if you dont bet

 

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