UGH OH - super horse Karl beat

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Gee 3 tracks in his entire life?  Well traveled.  4 more and likely done and my guess lucky if he get's 15k stud fee. Tactical approcah is 12,500 and much better pedigree and never had soundness issues like Karl.

$15k is possible. I wouldn't be shocked at $10k. Even at that, you really have to look at his pedigree and see what kind of mares the commercial breeders can potentially breed to him, who the alternatives are, etc. The pedigree/breeding is one side and then there's the economics/market. If I am a commercial breeder and I can breed to a $30k or $40k stallion, and a target market average of $125k, you can bet that breeder is going to heavily weigh that vs what? A first crop sire, Karl, all things considered, with a $10k or $15 stud fee, and a target market average of what? $35k or $40k? $50k? Even $60k. Cost the same to feed them both, LOL.

[dougie]

All I can say is I watched the race and thought he was a winner in the lane. I was kinda shocked when Zeron just seemed to coast up the rail to win by a neck. I had a $10 tri 7/5/14. Oh well!

[Miguel_Sanchez]

$15k is possible. I wouldn't be shocked at $10k. Even at that, you really have to look at his pedigree and see what kind of mares the commercial breeders can potentially breed to him, who the alternatives are, etc. The pedigree/breeding is one side and then there's the economics/market. If I am a commercial breeder and I can breed to a $30k or $40k stallion, and a target market average of $125k, you can bet that breeder is going to heavily weigh that vs what? A first crop sire, Karl, all things considered, with a $10k or $15 stud fee, and a target market average of what? $35k or $40k? $50k? Even $60k. Cost the same to feed them both, LOL.

Great point.  Most do not have a clue about economics and breeding.  They got greedy and turned down huge money for him as stallion and now he isn't worth half that value.  At 10k fee that is 1.4 mil a yr so he may be worth 4 mil tops right now as a stud.  3yrs to get paid before his first crop hits the track.

[wizardofoz]

Breeders get paid once the foal is born.

[MIKE CAMPBELL]

They all get beat, get over it. He's still got over 750K, more races to go. He will still end up standing stud, and people will breed to him. They won't care about skipping 1/2 or 5/8 mile tracks.

Correct. Everyone of these assholes had Muscle Hill on their top trotter list. How many races on a small track did he compete in? Also, I predict Karl races next year.

[rainman2]

They all get beat, get over it. He's still got over 750K, more races to go. He will still end up standing stud, and people will breed to him. They won't care about skipping 1/2 or 5/8 mile tracks.

Someone please look up Donato Hanover and what tracks he raced on?  See if he raced on smaller tracks.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Someone please look up Donato Hanover and what tracks he raced on?  See if he raced on smaller tracks.

Donato Hanover raced at five tracks.....Mohawk, Woodbine, Duquoin, Lexington, and the Meadowlands.

[Laag]

yep Donato Hanover and Deweycheatemnhowe do have better resumes than Karl

[rainman2]

Donato Hanover raced at five tracks.....Mohawk, Woodbine, Duquoin, Lexington, and the Meadowlands.

Wanted to be sure.  All big tracks also.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

You are not comparing Karl to Varenne, Ourasi, Moni Maker, Mack Lobell, and horses of that caliber. You are either a fool or uneducated if you are. It's plain and simple. Karl is not getting within light years of a GOAT list. Period. Is it possible for a US-only based horse, who never goes to Europe, never competes at many/multiple tracks, at different distances, etc., to get on a GOAT list? Absolutely. Rare, but absolutely. Case in point.....so, now, if you are trying to compare a horse like Karl to Muscle Hill, you are not going to pick one over the other because of the # of tracks one raced on. That's nonsense.

You are going to either know what you are looking at, or not. You are going to see each horse on the track, be a quality, strong judge of horseflesh, or not. Other than his first start where he finished second in a NJSS race, Muscle Hill never lost another race. After that race, he ran the table, at two and at three. Either you know what you are looking at or not. If you respect Bob Boni, Dave Reid, Bob Marks, Carter Duer, Les Stark, Murray Brown (who could not be objective and unbiased if you put a gun to his head), Sy Bonem, Jerry Glantz, Jan Johnson (who is a bloodstock advisor and consultant now), and if you knew Art Goldsmith, John Bradley, Geoff Stein, Richard Meirs, and several others, while they were alive, simply ask them. As long as they are being objective and don't have a conflict, you'll get a qualified, educated, quality answer. These are people who have spent their entire lives in-----actually in-----this game, they make their living in this game. People pay the for their opinions, assessments, etc. They aren't simply fans, they are students and masters of this game. I know Muscle Hill would make it onto at least a few of these people's GOAT list. Without question. What I know even more definitively..... Karl ain't. Let him do what I said before and then we'll talk. Until then, it's a moot discussion.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

All I can say is I watched the race and thought he was a winner in the lane. I was kinda shocked when Zeron just seemed to coast up the rail to win by a neck. I had a $10 tri 7/5/14. Oh well!

At least you can be objective, even having a vested interest, LOL.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Great point.  Most do not have a clue about economics and breeding.  They got greedy and turned down huge money for him as stallion and now he isn't worth half that value.  At 10k fee that is 1.4 mil a yr so he may be worth 4 mil tops right now as a stud.  3yrs to get paid before his first crop hits the track.

Nobody is writing checks any more. It's all syndications with the lead farm making a financial commitment which is nothing more than a bridge loan. Even some of those farms are financing their initial commitment. Regardless, if they wanted to cap him at 120 mares, at $10k, I don't know if he gets a full book. Not legit at least. Even if he does, 100 mares in foal, maybe 110, the three year and out game is over. A major portion of the mares bred will be the lead farm's mares and they want the grand slam now. Every one of them wants to be the one selling a yearling for $400k, $500k, or more. It happened once and now every one wants it.

[Parked]

Alexanders horses have been on fire all year.  Didn’t stop when he got to lex. 

[MIKE CAMPBELL]

Karl would have jerked the bridle off of horses like Mack Lobell,Varenne, Ourasi, Moni Maker, Peace Corp, etc. He trots in 1:50 every week. None of them had the innate ability to do so. Were they champions? Of course they were but evolution has made Karl a faster horse than them. This is not an opinion, it is fact. Just like horses, humans have become faster and stronger due to evolution, as well. Every 1-2 generations, carbon based life forms evolve into stronger, faster and even smarter beings. Please don't give me the "track surface" and "inferior equipment" excuse. If you don't think evolution is real, go look at a basketball game from the 60's. Michael Jordan or Lebron James in their present day shape would have averaged 200 point per game against players from that era. If their was a time machine that could take Usain Bolt back to the 1960's, he would have won his sprints by yards and not inches. All athletes of today, whether it is humans or equines are superior to the competitors of 40-50 years ago.

[The Unstable]

Karl would have jerked the bridle off of horses like Mack Lobell,Varenne, Ourasi, Moni Maker, Peace Corp, etc. He trots in 1:50 every week. None of them had the innate ability to do so. Were they champions? Of course they were but evolution has made Karl a faster horse than them. This is not an opinion, it is fact. Just like horses, humans have become faster and stronger due to evolution, as well. Every 1-2 generations, carbon based life forms evolve into stronger, faster and even smarter beings. Please don't give me the "track surface" and "inferior equipment" excuse. If you don't think evolution is real, go look at a basketball game from the 60's. Michael Jordan or Lebron James in their present day shape would have averaged 200 point per game against players from that era. If their was a time machine that could take Usain Bolt back to the 1960's, he would have won his sprints by yards and not inches. All athletes of today, whether it is humans or equines are superior to the competitors of 40-50 years ago.

That is like saying todays 5 claimers are better then Niatross.  Yet nobody would call fill in the blank 5 claimer as being better then him.  I have to agree , Karl is very nice and fast but nowhere near an all time great.