Watch how many shares are sold----to commercial breeders!!! And if you know them, ask them how much they paid for their share.
Any commercial breeder who has a mare that can cross to a premier stallion----is not going to breed to Karl. Commercial breeders maximize ROI. Do they want something to offer everyone, every type of buyer? Not for their premier mares. They want to sell well-into-six-figure yearlings! All things being equal, where would you invest your money----a premier stallion or Karl? He's a son of Tactical Landing, who is by Huscle Hill, out of a Varenne mare! You have to go back four generations on the sire side (from TL) to get to----Speedy Somolli, Super Bowl, Baltic Speed, and Speedy Crown. Go look at the mare side----Avalicious is by RC Royalty, out of a Speed In Action mare.
So forget about commercial breeders being backed into a corner. Forget about crosses. Commercial breeders have got plenty of options. Why, because if you want a premier stallion, and you want/need an outcross----you have Walner. If you own one mare----who can go almost anywhere----and you can't afford Walner, sure if Karl is 10k or 15k, you might consider it. But if you have an excellent mare, chances are you've sold some good yearlings and you can afford Walner. Walner can breed a massive community of mares----and he can breed Muscle Hill mares!
I think they overplayed their hand here. It only goes two ways. Either they set the stud fee where it belongs, 10k to 15k max, and they have a good second-tier stallion. They won't make a lot of money, but if he turns out to be a decent stallion, over time, they will make money. The problem is farms don't think "over time" ---- they think one to three years. That's their life-cycle so their entire business model is built around that.
Or, and I think this is more likely, they set the stud fee "artificially" high, say 20k, maybe 25k (which would be a very dangerous move), and they "create"----a very politically correct word for "fabricate"----the market. People look at average(s) and median(s), and yearling buyers are more likely to pay six digits for a yearling where the stud fee is 25k as opposed to 10k. But, the gamble is that commercial breeders won't breed mares to a 25k stallion who is really not a 25k stallion. Hence, the quandary. Will commercial breeders buy into a fabricated stallion/market? In today's day and age?
The X factor here is the BC. If Karl steps up and wins impressively, changes hearts and minds from what they've seen since the Hambo----well, that changes everything as of today. If he gets lucky and the race falls into his lap, he trips out and gets lucky and the rest of the field falls apart, etc.----it's still a BC victory. If he doesn't win, nothing changes.
