Track Speed Variants

[A Merliner]

Because I wasn’t clever enough to find recent track speed variants anywhere online, I computed them myself by creating a database of horses with consecutive races (fast tracks, no breaks, no layoffs, no interference) at two different tracks and tabulated their time differences.

FWIW these are the results after 5,362 such races :

1:54.0 Lex1
1:54.0 DuQ1
1:54.1 M1
1:54.2 Spr1
1:54.3 Haw1
1:55.1 OakGr5/8
1:55.2 Wbsb7/8
1:55.3 HoP7/8
1:55.3 Phl5/8
1:55.3 Mea5/8
1:55.3 PRc5/8
1:55.3 VD3/4
1:55.4 ScD5/8
1:55.4 CbRn5/8
1:56.0 MVR5/8
1:56.0 PcD5/8
1:56.0 Dtn5/8
1:56.1 Aces5/8
1:56.1 TgDn5/8
1:56.2 Dela
1:56.3 RcR5/8
1:56.3 DD5/8
1:57.2 YR
1:57.4 Nfld
1:57.4 Stga
1:58.1 Btva
1:58.1 Fhld
1:58.1 MR
1:58.2 BR
1:58.3 Har
1:58.3 OD
1:59.0 Bang
1:59.3 Cumb

[gh2009]

I have many problems with using track variants.  Tracks with cheaper horses tend to have slower track variants but might me very fast tracks. Some tracks race in the late fall and winter months like Dover Downs, which is probably one of the fastest 5/8 miles tracks around. Rosecroft is also extremely fast, but the caliber of their horses is rather weak. Tracks with a higher caliber of horses will give that track a higher track variant but may not be as fast as another track with cheaper horses, or ones who race in colder weather.

[A Merliner]

Everything single thing you wrote is false.

The variants are computed using the time differentials of the SAME horse racing at two different tracks in CONSECUTIVE races, which eliminates track class bias.

Further, the variants account for the temperature differential of the two consecutive races (18.6 degrees/sec) which eliminates weather bias.

Rosecroft and Dover and not “extremely fast”. They are, instead, the slowest two 5/8s in the country.

[The Thorn]

Everything single thing you wrote is false.

I'll agree with you especially on the rating he gave Dover and Rosecroft.  Totally absurd to think that class of horse has anything to do with a tracks speed rating either.

One thing that is strange is how Chester suddenly in the last 2 years has gotten so fast.  It was always slower than Pocono and the Meadows but not the last 2 years.  I suspect some Pylon movements were made.

[gh2009]

I made a false statement, shame on me, or was it just my opinion?

A-Merliner:
Thanks for being such an expert on track variants, what else are you an expert at? Back in the 1960's alot of racetrack programs used to have track variants for most of the tracks, but it seemed like they never updated them thru the years.  First of all, who cares what a track variant is.

"The Thorn"
Do you honestly believe that tracks with faster horses don't end up with higher track variants? You obviously don't watch the races at Dover and Rosecroft on a regular basis, both tracks are extremely fast and if top horses raced there in the summer, they'd easily go under 1:47 which is their track records. So now Chester suddenly got faster because they moved the pylons, that's a good one, where did you dig that one up from. Do you believe in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy too?

[Harness racer]

Rosecroft has a bunch of good ones there tonight and they will not go under 1:47, nor would they if it were warm out.  No horse "easily" goes under 1:47 on any 5/8th mile track.  Just a dumb statement.

[Harness racer]

When has any horse "easily" gone sub 1:47 on a 5/8 mile track?  You stated many would easily do it didn't you.  Only other i remember is RUTHLESS HANOVER.

[pocketrocketwinner]

It's obvious that the rosecroft turns are banked significantly and those times don't travel anywhere else. Most likely the fastest 5/8ths out there

[A Merliner]

It's obvious that the rosecroft turns are banked significantly and those times don't travel anywhere else. Most likely the fastest 5/8ths out there

The objective, numerical computation of the comparative times of over 5,000 North Americans races says your speculation is spectacularly incorrect.

[pocketrocketwinner]

The objective, numerical computation of the comparative times of over 5,000 North Americans races says your speculation is spectacularly incorrect.

any experienced gambler would not agree with you. Those rosecroft times never translate to any other track in the mid Atlantic/northeast.

[A Merliner]

Rubbish.

The objective, reproducible, repeatable numerical data directly reflects reality - unlike the guesses or feelings or suppositions of “experienced gamblers”.

[pocketrocketwinner]

Rubbish.

The objective, reproducible, repeatable numerical data directly reflects reality - unlike the guesses or feelings or suppositions of “experienced gamblers”.

Do you gamble or race at rosecroft and other nearby east coast tracks? Just curious.

[A Merliner]

Do you gamble or race at rosecroft and other nearby east coast tracks? Just curious.

Indeed.

As a Marylander (pronounced in the Free State as “A Merliner”), I’ve been wagering at Rosecroft, FreeState and Ocean Downs since the late ‘70s - and will obviously be at RcR shortly for the Potomac.

[Call Sign Merlin]

I mean Northfield has a 3 second same track variance compared to last year

[bond]

Because I wasn’t clever enough to find recent track speed variants anywhere online, I computed them myself by creating a database of horses with consecutive races (fast tracks, no breaks, no layoffs, no interference) at two different tracks and tabulated their time differences.

FWIW these are the results after 5,362 such races :

1:54.0 Lex1
1:54.0 DuQ1
1:54.1 M1
1:54.2 Spr1
1:54.3 Haw1
1:55.1 OakGr5/8
1:55.2 Wbsb7/8
1:55.3 HoP7/8
1:55.3 Phl5/8
1:55.3 Mea5/8
1:55.3 PRc5/8
1:55.3 VD3/4
1:55.4 ScD5/8
1:55.4 CbRn5/8
1:56.0 MVR5/8
1:56.0 PcD5/8
1:56.0 Dtn5/8
1:56.1 Aces5/8
1:56.1 TgDn5/8
1:56.2 Dela
1:56.3 RcR5/8
1:56.3 DD5/8
1:57.2 YR
1:57.4 Nfld
1:57.4 Stga
1:58.1 Btva
1:58.1 Fhld
1:58.1 MR
1:58.2 BR
1:58.3 Har
1:58.3 OD
1:59.0 Bang
1:59.3 Cumb