Author Topic: Today's Carryovers  (Read 1603 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

HorseplayerB

  • NW-1
  • *
  • Posts: 3
Today's Carryovers
« on: January 08, 2025, 09:48:48 AM »
There is a decent Pick 5 Carryover at Western Fair today:

https://todayscarryovers.blogspot.com/

firhill

  • Open / FFA
  • ****
  • Posts: 348
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2025, 12:10:35 PM »
Races cancelled tonight..snow.

Brown jug

  • Elite
  • ******
  • Posts: 3179
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2025, 02:13:49 PM »
thanks for headsup
more time to study it for Friday

HorseplayerB

  • NW-1
  • *
  • Posts: 3
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2025, 10:20:42 AM »

Scooteroo

  • Stakes Horse
  • *****
  • Posts: 1152
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2025, 10:29:53 AM »
Normally when Dover has a 1-day Pick 4 carryover, the total pool ends up between $15,000 and $20,000.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2025, 10:39:58 AM by gh2009 »

Papillon

  • Stakes Horse
  • *****
  • Posts: 1373
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2025, 11:47:10 AM »
Carryovers are an optical illusion

it makes many believe there exists an advantage-or even worse-a "negative takeout"

in reality, carryovers catch the attention of CAWs, and their pool analyses will see all the combinations played before they bet-and then they bet accordingly

there is no advantage

Scooteroo

  • Stakes Horse
  • *****
  • Posts: 1152
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2025, 01:44:58 PM »
I totally agree with you, but of course lapdog Jason Settlemoir feels the need to bring up the negative takeout when Meadowlands has a carryover.  The pools aren't that big at Dover, so I highly doubt they spend much time there.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2025, 01:49:01 PM by gh2009 »

Superfecta

  • Elite
  • ******
  • Posts: 4629
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2025, 04:47:58 PM »
The pick 4 carryover earlier this afternoon at The Meadows was races 1-4. The morons at USTA put up the program for races 10-13.

Kenny

  • Top Claimer
  • ***
  • Posts: 141
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2025, 05:29:30 PM »
Carryovers are an optical illusion

it makes many believe there exists an advantage-or even worse-a "negative takeout"

in reality, carryovers catch the attention of CAWs, and their pool analyses will see all the combinations played before they bet-and then they bet accordingly

there is no advantage

This information is not correct. All you need to do is calculate  the payouts using the money bet after the takeout in that race. The actual payouts will be higher by the amount of the carryover.

Quote
In the process of demonstrating the negative effect of takeout, I will be limiting my wagering to non-jackpot, carryover wagers only*. For example, one of my favorite wagers to make is the $1 Hi 5 when there is a substantial carryover. The resulting pool, with the carryover added, almost always results in a near 0% takeout situation

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/carryover-a-year-long-exploration-for-true-value/

Papillon

  • Stakes Horse
  • *****
  • Posts: 1373
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2025, 10:56:29 AM »
This information is not correct. All you need to do is calculate  the payouts using the money bet after the takeout in that race. The actual payouts will be higher by the amount of the carryover.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/carryover-a-year-long-exploration-for-true-value/

Elite sees all the combinations after everyone else has made their bets

you thinking you have an edge with a carryover is laughable ngc3 ngc3 ngc3

Any1Left

  • Open / FFA
  • ****
  • Posts: 350
Re: Today's Carryovers
« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2025, 11:59:29 AM »
Elite sees all the combinations after everyone else has made their bets

you thinking you have an edge with a carryover is laughable ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
it makes no sense what you are saying PAP and yet as crazy as it sounds i have to agree with you and that might make no sense to many but it does to me and you,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i do not know of a person who is doing super well on carryovers these days yet im sick and still overplay them,,,,,,

 

shout out

Refresh History
  • Sound off !
  • Lomac: Thestable
    April 25, 2025, 04:51:51 PM
  • Off the rocker: Todd smith
    April 24, 2025, 08:55:43 PM
  • SwankToliverA: Wearing my HM shirt
    April 24, 2025, 06:55:50 PM
  • MMEYER0227@YAHOO.COM: Hunter Myers
    April 24, 2025, 04:07:17 PM
  • Unclejerry: R6 @ Yr Prime Tri pays $184,50
    April 21, 2025, 08:45:14 PM
  • Unclejerry: Prime picks the Super R5 at Yr for $120.30
    April 21, 2025, 08:24:43 PM
  • Unclejerry: Jerrys Picks and Prime return #118.50
    April 21, 2025, 06:58:27 PM
  • Unclejerry: The announcer at Yonkers has a hair lisp
    April 21, 2025, 06:53:51 PM
SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2025, SimplePortal