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« Last post by goblue on Today at 01:24:51 PM »
I had Golden Tempo in the Derby (which I shared in this forum). Back for the Preakness.
The undisputed best horse in this race is #10 Napoleon Solo. His Champagne win last year is arguably the best win this crop has produced in 2025-2026. His well-publicized setbacks going into the Wood Memorial less than 100% (and he still put in a good effort that day), combined with his much-improved recent works form, give me strong confidence he'll be sharp tomorrow. I think he's clearly the fastest horse in this race, and, assuming a clean break, he should be able to dictate terms over the other speed horses in this race, namely #1 Taj Mahal on the rail.
There is a real risk of a ballistic pace in this race if #10 Napolean Solo can't clear to the front. I think he can, but if he doesn't, I project a pace meltdown.
In this scenario, my eyes turn to two horse who I don't particularly like but who you simply can't overlook given their running styles. I'm referring to #2 Ocelli and #12 Incredibolt. Between the two, I think #12 Incredibolt actually ran a better race in the Kentucky Derby, being positioned closer to the front and sustaining his bid among fading horses (similar to Chief Wallabee). I still don't have much faith in this horse given how poorly that Virginia Derby win has aged. I think the class disadvantage is steep, but they will be underneath on my tickets based on running style alone.
I am really interested by #6 Chip Honcho and #7 The Hell We Did. I think both could stalk #10 Napolean Solo, and both could get the trips to grab a piece.
#6 Chip Honcho is a huge question mark. This is a weird horse; always has been. Everyone remembers how bad he looked in the mornings at Churchill leading up to the Derby before inevitably scratching. That, combined with his form reversal in his last start, is a huge concern wheeling back just two weeks later. If he somehow finds a way to fire his Risen Star performance, he'll be right there, but I think that's a big if.
#7 The Hell We Did is a physical specimen. This horse has monster aspirations, but I just don't think he's good enough yet. I think he is the one horse in this race I can confidently say will take a step forward here. But to win this race, it will have to be a HUGE step. Is he capable of it? Maybe, maybe not.
I am fully fading #1 Taj Mahal and #9 Iron Honor.
#1 Taj Mahal has looked unfocused and hot-headed in the mornings as of late, is taking a monster step up in class, is not nearly as fast off the jump as the other speeds in this race, and has a local rider in the saddle, which historically is an all-time fade angle. Pass.
#9 Iron Honor is a horse I've never really been impressed by. He will take money because of his connections, but at no point in his Wood Memorial did he look like a better horse than a less-than-100% #10 Napolean Solo. I thought he was a disappointing winner in the Gotham in February - and as he's stretched out, his form has worsened. How can one expect him to take a step forward for the first time in his career while stretching out yet again against horses he's already been out-classed by? And as possibly the post-time favorite. Yikes! Steer clear.
I am also tossing #3 Crupper, #4 Robusta, #11 Corona de Oro, and #14 Pretty Boy Miah based on huge running style disadvantages, along with post position for the outside pair. They are the biggest pace factors but none will be there at the end.
It's a joke #8 Bull By the Horns is in this race.
That leaves two horses #5 Talkin and #13 Great White to talk about. Both come out the dilapidated 2026 Bluegrass where they finished a quarter mile behind Derby auto-fade Further Ado. Both have favorable running styles, but neither have shown anything that leads me to believe they will take steps forward here.
I'll take a swing with the classiest and fastest horse in the race, #10 Napolean Solo.
Tickets
$100 10 WP
$50 10 S
$10 7 WPS
$5 Key 10 with 2,6,7,12/2,6,7,12 ex/tri
$2 2,6,7,12 ex/tri
Total: $548
Good luck!
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